Metro Manila's real estate market in 2025 shows a clear divide between established central business districts (CBDs) like Bonifacio Global City (BGC), Makati, and Ortigas, and rising suburban areas such as Quezon City, Alabang, and Cebu. As economic recovery continues, core areas face potential price stabilization or "peaking," while developers like Ayala Land, SM Prime, and Megaworld pour investments into integrated communities in emerging zones, offering higher growth potential for investors.

Core CBD Price Trends: Signs of Peaking in 2025

In Q1 2025, residential rents in Metro Manila dipped slightly by 0.4%, signaling a slowdown in core CBDs. BGC maintains premium rents at PHP 1,056/sqm/month, outpacing Makati, but high vacancy rates in Ortigas suggest oversupply pressure. Analysts warn of "overheating," with condo prices potentially correcting after rapid post-pandemic gains. While Makati and BGC attract expats and executives, their high-end markets may have touched peak values, with slower appreciation expected compared to pre-2025 surges. Diversification beyond these hubs is key for sustained growth.

Emerging Suburbs: Developer Projects and Investment Potential

Suburban areas are gaining traction, with large-scale developments driving value. Ayala Land leads with P100 billion in launches, including P12.7 billion in Cebu mall redevelopments like Ayala Center Cebu, emphasizing mixed-use communities for long-term appreciation. SM Prime's $9 billion expansion focuses on malls and residences in Alabang and Quezon City, boosting retail-residential integration and yields. Megaworld's townships in Quezon City and Cebu have fueled property surges, with values nearly doubling in some areas since 2018. Among these, Ayala's Cebu projects show strongest potential due to tourism growth, followed by Megaworld's value-driven townships; SM offers solid retail-backed stability.

Outlook for Investors in 2025

As core CBDs like BGC, Makati, and Ortigas stabilize, suburbs offer untapped potential through developer-led projects. Investors should prioritize emerging areas for higher returns, amid a market poised for growth despite challenges.